ABPW10 PGTW 190600 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND /SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/190600Z-200600ZAUG2019// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 151.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 150.0E, APPROXIMATELY 474 NM EAST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED, SYMMETRIC LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH MINIMAL CONVECTION BEING SHEARED SOUTHWESTWARD. A 190438Z SSMI F-15 85GHZ CONFIRMS A COMPLETE LACK OF OVERHEAD DEEP CONVECTION. AN 182314Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS SHOWS 15-20 KNOT WINDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC. 98W IS CURRENLTY IN A VERY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH NONEXISTENT UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, VERY HIGH (35 TO 40 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND MARGINAL (26 TO 27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 98W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKED BEFORE BEING ABSORBED INTO A MID- LATITUDE CYCLONE TO THE NORTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW. (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.1N 134.9E, APPROXIMATELY 573 NM WEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED, CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH CONVECTION BEING SHEARED WESTWARD. A 190016Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH SOME MID-LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING IN FROM THE WEST. A 190058Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS SHOWS A VERY BROAD AND VERY WEAK LLC. 97W IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH BROAD, DISORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, HIGH (20 TO 25 KNOT) VWS AND WARM (27 TO 28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 97W WILL TRACK WESTWARD WHILE CONTINUING TO CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.// NNNN
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